Global Economy - U.S. Recession risk is crossing over a probability level that makes recession our base case for the end of 2022 and into early 2023. As inflation and monetary tightening ease more perceptibly in late-2023, we expect a nascent economic recovery that markets may protect into 2024. Read More
Global economy: We are making our base case a mild contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the U.S. and a sharper contraction in Europe. Read More
Many investors have expressed concerns over a possible repeat of the great inflation and stagnant economy that hampered markets during the 1970s and early 1980s. We believe differences between conditions now and those over 40 years ago outweigh similarities and point toward a return to more moderate inflation. Read More
Whenever there’s market volatility, investors naturally become concerned about what they should do to help protect their portfolios. Although there are some strategies that are particularly suited to down markets, many financial experts will tell you that, for the most part, investors should focus on their asset allocations in a down market just as they should when prices are up. So although down markets can be difficult to endure, they don’t necessarily require investors to do anything — unless they’ve strayed from their asset allocations and need to get their portfolios back in line. Read More
Many Americans anticipate retirement as a chance to get out of the rat race and finally have time for the all things they’ve always wanted to do. You will probably be more active, live and work longer, and for income, need to rely more on what you’ve saved than prior generations. And that means ensuring that this income has the potential to last for your lifetime and to weather rising health care expenses, inflation, and market ups and downs. Read More
Markets are still evaluating how Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions may impact the global economy and market returns. New rounds of sanctions this week have raised questions about how these measures may raise commodity prices or otherwise affect the U.S. and international economic outlook. Read More
Corrections have been a normal bull market occurance. Read More
The digital asset ecosystem has taken several quantum leaps forward since the creation of bitcoin in 2009, and cryptocurrency is now widely considered a viable investable asset. Read More
Investing in an interconnected world. We consider globalization the interdependence that arises as goods, services, people and information cross borders and encourage globally integrated markets. For example, smartphone components could leave factories in South Korea or Taiwan for assembly in China, and then the finished products cross the pacific to a shelf of a U.S. retailer. Read More
Many young investors may be grappling with high levels of personal debt. Specifically, student debt, which has ballooned to roughly $1.73 trillion in the second quarter of 2021, according to the Federal Reserve. The graph below depicts the large difference in consumer credit between student loans, revolving debt and motor vehicle loans. This makes student loans the second largest category of consumer borrowing (behind mortgages) in the United States. As the newest generation of investors begin their careers and start to earn money, they will face an onerous choice; invest early or focus on paying off their debt? Read More
Whether your children or grandchildren are toddlers or teenagers, it’s only a matter of a time before they leave the family home, probably as they head off to college. The cost of sending just one child to college for four years can be staggering, and tuition and fee hikes regularly outpace inflation. Rather than sending your children or grandchildren into the world with the burden of student-loan debt, you can save to help cover at least a portion, if not all, of their higher-education expenses. Read More
One financial strategy that is often overlooked when evaluating your retirement and estate planning options is the Roth IRA conversion. Converting allows you to reposition your current tax-deferred retirement account to a Roth IRA by paying federal and possibly state income tax [but without the IRS 10% additional tax for taking early or pre-59½ distributions (10% additional tax)] on the taxable amount of the conversion. The benefit is that any earnings would be distributed tax-free, if certain conditions are met. Read More
Are you interested in making contributions to a Roth IRA but your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) is too high? Do you choose not to contribute to a Traditional IRA because you are covered by a workplace retirement plan (WRP) and your MAGI is at or above the phase-out limits for a deduction? If so, chances are good you’ve been told or read about the “back-door” Roth conversion. But what is it? At its simplest, it’s a Roth conversion of after-tax amounts in a Traditional IRA, meaning you won’t pay tax when converting. Read More
For most investors, spending and investing follows a circular pattern: a focus on discretionary spending in younger years, followed by a greater emphasis on saving — for retirement, a home down payment, or children’s education — and then a return to discretionary spending once any long-term debts are paid off. Read More
Cryptocurrencies originated as a new kind of currency in 2009. They are not physically minted or printed, like a dime or a $20 bill. Cryptocurrencies are digital, which means that they only exist electronically. Using them as a currency requires a digital device such as a smart phone, tablet, or computer. Read More